Navigating Market Cycles: A Hybrid Approach for the Decades Ahead
- Sep 6, 2024
- 6 min read
Updated: Oct 21
Critical Update: October 2025
The major crash phase originally expected in 2027–2030 began materialising in mid-2025, confirming a 2–3 year acceleration. Our June 2025 alert identified the compression of the cycle and the structural catalysts driving the downturn before Wall Street and the media fully recognised it.
Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett (September 29, 2025) highlighted that roughly 40 stocks—mainly the “Magnificent 7” and AI ecosystem companies—accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns since the rally began, warning of a potential “Cisco moment.” Jamie Dimon (October 9) echoed heightened concern, assigning a 30% probability of a major correction within 6 months to 2 years versus the market’s 10% consensus.
The structural catalysts—aggressive April 2025 tariffs, escalating geopolitical conflicts, Federal Reserve constraints, and global economic instability—have proven accurate. The late-2024/early-2025 housebuilder rally represented a blow-off top, a final surge in prices while smart money exited. Temporary spikes do not negate the cycle peak; the structural high has already occurred. Wall Street’s fixation on AI overinvestment misses the point: AI spending is a symptom, not the driver. The "crash" is unfolding due to these deeper structural factors, and recognising this early, is what gives traders a true edge.
All subsequent cycle phases have been accelerated 2–3 years: the major crash is underway (2025–2027), recovery shifts to 2027–2029, and growth peaks move to 2029–2031.
Traders should prioritise defensive positioning now—high cash reserves, avoiding late-cycle “transformation” traps, and monitoring structural signals such as tariff impacts, geopolitical escalation, Fed policy errors, and credit stress.
The maximum opportunity window arrives when pessimism peaks, with real estate trusts, infrastructure, quality dividend stocks, and distressed small caps trading at crisis-level valuations.
The hybrid cycle framework—Anderson’s real estate cycles, Benner’s agricultural cycles, and Elliott wave patterns—remains structurally valid.
Recognising capital allocation trends, in conjunction with the cycle, is the key to trading with an edge.
While some institutions have begun adjusting, many market participants remain late to the structural turn and will miss the optimal entry points.
This is exactly what our upcoming masterclass with Taz teaches: how to read these patterns, follow smart money, and align momentum with structure to become consistently profitable—trading ahead of the crowd, not reacting to it.
Below this update, you’ll find our Summer 2025 update and the core blog, which provide the foundational analysis and insights behind our current market perspective.
Stay in touch and make sure you’re on the list for our upcoming masterclass session in November 2025—an opportunity to learn directly how to read cycles, follow capital flows, and trade with a real edge.
Critical Update: June 2025
Timeline Acceleration Alert: The market predictions outlined in this analysis may require significant recalibration based on current events. What we anticipated for the 2027-2030 major crash phase appears to be materializing now, in 2025, potentially 2-3 years ahead of schedule.
The convergence of multiple extraordinary factors—aggressive tariff policies implemented in April 2025, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, Federal Reserve policy uncertainty amid persistent inflation concerns, and global economic instability—may have compressed our entire cycle timeline. The recent strength in housebuilders that lifted markets in late 2024 and early 2025 could have been the final euphoric rally before the anticipated downturn, rather than evidence of continued late-stage expansion.
If this acceleration thesis proves correct, investors should consider that we may already be entering the major crash phase originally predicted for 2027-2030, with all subsequent recovery and growth phases potentially arriving 2-3 years earlier than outlined below. Market participants should exercise heightened caution and consider that the traditional cycle patterns remain valid, but the timeline may have been dramatically compressed by unprecedented external shocks.
The original analysis follows, but readers should view all dates as potentially accelerated by 2-3 years based on current market conditions.
Important Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market cycle theories are speculative frameworks that may not accurately predict future market movements. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry the risk of loss, and individuals should conduct their research and consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any financial decisions made based on this content.
Introduction
Understanding market cycles is essential for traders and investors seeking to thrive in both the booming and downturn phases of the market.
Samuel Benner’s agricultural cycle, Dr. Phil Anderson’s real estate-driven economic cycle, and Ralph Nelson Elliott’s wave theory provide profound insights into the repetitive nature of financial markets.
By integrating these models, you can gain a clearer perspective on market trends and enhance your strategic approach.
In this guide, we’ll explore how these theories can inform and refine your trading strategy over the next 27 years.
The Historical Framework
Samuel Benner’s Cycle: Benner’s model is a historical framework predicting economic cycles based on agricultural commodities. His 11-year cycle alternates between prosperity, decline, and panic, with periodic corrections.
Dr. Phil Anderson’s 18-Year Cycle: Anderson’s theory focuses on the property market, predicting an 18-year cycle with four distinct phases:
6 Years of Expansion: Economic growth and rising property values.
2 Years of Mid-Cycle Slowdown: A short, mild recession or correction.
6 More Years of Growth: Continued expansion with increased speculation.
4 Years of Major Crash: A significant downturn, akin to the 2007-2008 financial crisis.
Ralph Nelson Elliott’s Wave Theory: Elliott’s theory posits that markets move in predictable wave patterns. These waves reflect the collective psychology of market participants and can be used to forecast future price movements.
The Recent Past: A Case Study
2020 COVID-19 Crash: The pandemic-induced market crash fit Anderson’s model as a mid-cycle slowdown, disrupting an otherwise growing economy.
Post-COVID Boom: Following the 2020 crash, the market saw a dramatic recovery and a boom that peaked in early 2022, with the S&P 500 climbing approximately 120%.
Recent Decline: Since then, the market experienced a circa 27% drop into October 2023, followed by another growth phase into mid-2024. This pattern aligns with Benner’s prediction of alternating prosperity and decline.
Looking Ahead: A Hybrid Cycle Model
Combining Benner’s and Anderson’s cycles with Elliott’s wave theory provides a comprehensive view of upcoming market trends:
2024-2026: Late-Stage Expansion
Both models predict a continued growth phase with rising property values and increased speculative activity.
Market Impact: Expect strong performance in equities and real estate. It’s a period to capitalize on growth but remain cautious of overvaluation.
2027-2030: Major Crash
Anderson’s model anticipates a significant downturn around 2027-2030, driven by a property market bubble burst. Benner’s cycle supports this with a predicted panic phase.
Market Impact: Prepare for sharp declines in property and stock markets. Risk management and diversification will be crucial.
2031-2034: Recovery Phase
Following the crash, expect a recovery period where the economy begins to rebound. New investment opportunities will emerge.
Market Impact: Focus on rebuilding portfolios, investing in emerging sectors, and capitalizing on recovery trends.
2035-2037: Growth Peaks
Both models indicate a strong growth phase, leading to new highs in markets.
Market Impact: This is a time for strategic investments and exploring high-growth sectors. Be mindful of rising speculation.
2038-2040: Panic/Correction
Anticipate another significant market correction driven by overvaluation and speculative bubbles.
Market Impact: Tighten risk management strategies and consider defensive investments to weather the downturn.
2041-2044: New Expansion
Following the correction, the market enters a new growth phase, setting the stage for future opportunities.
Market Impact: Look for growth in equities and real estate as the economy recovers.
2045-2047: Speculative Boom
Expect a speculative boom leading to new highs, but be cautious of excessive risk-taking.
Market Impact: Maximize gains while preparing for potential future volatility.
2048-2050: Major Crash
A final major downturn is expected, mirroring past cycles.
Market Impact: Prepare for a significant market correction and re-assess long-term investment strategies.
Conclusion
By understanding and applying the hybrid cycle model of Benner’s agricultural cycle, Anderson’s real estate-driven cycle, and Elliott’s wave theory, traders and investors can better anticipate and navigate the market’s ups and downs over the next 27 years. Preparing for growth phases and major crashes will help you stay ahead of market trends and make informed investment decisions.
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Disclaimer: The content provided in this blog is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on historical market cycles and theories.
While these models offer valuable insights into market behaviour, there is no guarantee that future market movements will follow the patterns described.
The predictions and analyses presented are speculative and should not be construed as financial advice or a guarantee of future performance.
Always conduct your research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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